AUGUSTA, Maine — A new economic analysis finds even a limited immigration enforcement surge would set off a cascade of job losses across Maine’s economy, with the majority of jobs lost held by US-born workers rather than immigrants.
The findings come from a state-by-state study released by the Immigration Research Initiative (IRI). Due to small sample sizes, the report combines Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont into a single Northern New England projection. The impacts are focused primarily on men, since 90 percent of ICE arrests are male, and in the US labor market many jobs are highly gendered.
According to that analysis, if just one percent of immigrant men in the region without a college education — the group researchers identify as most at risk of arrest — were detained in the kind of large-scale raids that have occurred elsewhere in the country, the result would be:
- 200 arrests of immigrant men
- An additional 100 immigrant men pushed out of employment, as workers — regardless of legal status — avoid workplaces out of fear of arrest
- 700 US-born men losing their jobs as a secondary effect
In other words, for every immigrant directly arrested, roughly four other workers — most of them US-born — would lose their jobs as well.
“This just proves how self-defeating the Trump administration’s immigration policies really are,” said James Myall, senior economic policy analyst at Maine Center for Economic Policy. “Not only are these arrests often cruel and unnecessary, but they’re also hurting the very Americans President Trump promised to help.”
The report is based on research by two University of Colorado professors who examined ICE activity in different parts of the US during the first 10 months of the second Trump administration. They found a chain reaction that begins with direct arrests and extends deep into the broader labor market:
- Direct job loss. Immigrants who are arrested lose their jobs immediately.
- A chilling effect. Other immigrants — including many with legal work authorization — stay away from job sites to avoid the risk of being caught up in enforcement activity.
- Disruption to complementary jobs. Employers struggle to replace workers in roles where immigrants play an outsized part, which in turn affects jobs typically held by US-born workers. The report points to construction as an example: when immigrant roofers and laborers are pushed out of the workforce, work slows for electricians and plumbers, who are more often US-born.
- A shrinking local economy. As fewer people are employed, local spending declines, adding further pressure on businesses and compounding job losses.
- No wage gains. Contrary to the idea that removing immigrant workers would raise pay for remaining workers, the report finds wages stayed flat.
Access the full report at immresearch.org/reports/ice-arrests-result-in-a-decline-in-employment-state-level-projections.
Maine Center for Economic Policy (MECEP) is an independent, nonprofit, nonpartisan research and policy organization dedicated to improving economic opportunity for Mainers throughout their lives.
Immigration Research Initiative (IRI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank focused on the economic, social, and cultural inclusion of immigrants in the United States.