After one year in office, the effects of President Trump’s economic policies are beginning to show in state data. His attempts to reshape the economy through tariffs, deportations and shifts to federal assistance programs are impacting jobs, wages, prices, economic activity and health and well-being.
1. Fewer Mainers have jobs. Between January and December 2025 (the most recent month we have available data), the total number of Mainers in payroll employment declined by 5,200. By comparison, Maine gained 2,100 workers in 2024 . However, the loss of jobs has not translated into a rise in unemployment. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in December 2025 was 3.2%, down from 3.5% in January 2025. This may reflect that the decline in employment is due to retirements as Maine’s workforce ages. Nonetheless, this is a worrying trend for Maine’s economy.
2. Wage growth slowed. Between January and December 2025, average hourly wages for private-sector employees Maine increased just 0.6% after adjusting for inflation. That’s less than half the inflation-adjusted growth of 1.5% in average hourly wages in Maine between January and December 2024.
3. Tariffs are costing Mainers. The federal government has collected an additional $167 billion in tariffs in 2025. That’s equivalent to $1,100 per household, or almost $677 million across all Maine households. While US importers have absorbed some of the impacts of the increased costs from tariffs, research suggests the majority has been passed on to consumers through higher prices, and that will increase in 2026. Although the Supreme Court declared more than half of those tariffs illegal, how and whether Maine businesses and households will get that money back remains unclear.
4. Trump’s signature legislation will leave tens of thousands sick and hungry and does little to boost incomes for working Mainers. HR1, which the President calls the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” adds new restrictions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid (known as MaineCare in Maine). The Maine Department of Health and Human Services predicts 30,000 Mainers could lose health care as a result of being unable to verify they work enough hours to meet a new work reporting requirement. Tens of thousands more will lose health coverage due to the failure of Congressional Republicans and the administration to extend insurance premium tax credits. Tens of thousands of Mainers including people experiencing homelessness, older Mainers, and some parents are newly subject to a similar requirement for SNAP.
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy recently calculated the combined costs of tariffs, HR1, and the failure to continue providing funding to bring down the cost of health insurance for Maine families. For the vast majority of Mainers, the costs of tariffs and the end of enhanced insurance premium tax credits heavily outweighs any small benefit from Trump’s tax cuts.
5. Canadians stopped visiting Maine. Between February 2025 and January 2026, Maine saw 846,000 fewer border crossings with Canada than the year before, a 27% decline. This was largely driven by a decline in Canadians visiting Maine and resulted in decreased economic activity along the border. Based on MECEP analysis, taxable sales declined year over year by 3.1% in border towns while the rest of Maine saw increases in taxable sales during the same period. This included an even more significant decline in restaurant and lodging along the border and in communities like Old Orchard Beach that have historically relied on Canadian tourists.
6. Immigration actions have had a chilling effect. The Trump administration launched a high-profile operation which claimed to detain over 200 Mainers at the end of January. Even before that, hundreds more were arrested and detained in the first year of the Trump administration. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) apprehended 230 individuals in Maine in 2025 through October, an increase of approximately 75% over the year before. Meanwhile Customs and Border Patrol reported apprehending a record 725 individuals in Maine in federal fiscal year 2025 (October 2024-September 2025). The federal government has not confirmed the identity or even the legal status of many of those apprehended, but anecdotal reports suggest many had permission to work in the United States and few had a criminal record.
Research shows deporting immigrants generally leads to a smaller economy and lower wages for native-born workers as a result. MECEP analysis indicates that the most recent immigration enforcement surge reduced sales by over $3 million and will have lasting consequences by reducing Maine’s workforce.
President Trump has generally pursued a set of policies which will weaken the economies of the United States and Maine. Tariffs, particularly when applied broadly and arbitrarily as the President has done, increase prices for consumers and businesses while reducing opportunities to sell products abroad. His foreign policy announcements have led to a steep drop off in Canadian visitors, hurting border communities. Immigration restrictions and deportations shrink the labor force — a serious problem in a state like Maine where many employers are struggling to fill open jobs. Together, these add up to a smaller economy with reduced jobs and slower wage growth. The President’s second year shows no signs of reversing course, and a potential oil supply shock could drive prices even higher.