At a glance:
- Increased activity by ICE during “Operation Catch of the Day” likely reduced economic activity in parts of Maine, with an estimated $3.4 million drop in retail sales and thousands of workers and students absent due to fear and disruption
- Broader economic impacts may be much larger: a 5%–10% decline in economic activity among Mainers of Color during the 10-day period could have reduced regional economies by $10–$22 million, with business surveys also reporting revenue losses and missing staff
- Continued arrests and potential deportations could shrink Maine’s workforce and economic output, with the removal of roughly 157 workers potentially reducing the state economy by nearly $12 million annually
The surge in activity by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in late January likely cost local economies millions of dollars in lost economic activity.
During “Operation Catch of the Day,” conducted between January 20 and January 29, masked federal agents arrested large numbers of people in seemingly arbitrary ways, creating an atmosphere of fear which led people to stay home from school, work, and shopping. The result was a decrease in everyday economic activity, an unknown number of Mainers placed at risk of going hungry or being evicted from their homes, and psychological and social harms that translate into measurable economic losses for local businesses and reduced tax revenues for the state.
MECEP estimates the operation reduced taxable retail sales by approximately $3.4 million over a ten-day period in the areas most directly affected — Biddeford-Saco, Lewiston-Auburn, and Greater Portland. This represents a decline in sales of just over 2% in those regions. In those same areas, MECEP also estimates an average of over 2,300 people were absent from work every day and more than 1,000 students were absent from school.
*Stay-home rate derived from school absence data among students of color. See methodology.
MECEP’s findings are consistent with a survey of businesses conducted by the Greater Portland Council of Governments that shows more than two thirds of surveyed businesses experiencing a negative impact from Operation Catch of the Day. More than half of survey respondents said their revenue was down more than 5% and one-third had missing staff.
If the impact on schools in January reflect broader effects across Maine’s economy, the total impact could be much larger. Mainers of Color make up just over 13% of the residents of the Portland and Lewiston metropolitan areas. If they generate an equivalent share of the regions’ GDP, a 5% drop in economic activity among this population would reduce the regional economy by almost $10 million during the 10 days of enhanced ICE operations. A 10% decline would have cost the state economy almost $22 million. This does not include additional impacts in other parts of the state which may also have experienced a chilling effect on economic activity.
This pattern has repeated itself elsewhere. The ICE operation in Minnesota led to a 3% decline in consumer spending statewide, and a similar decline in employment and business openings in the cities of Minneapolis and St Paul. Census data showed a drop in employment in the wake of federal operations in Los Angeles, and the deployment of the National Guard to DC led to a 31% decline in restaurant bookings.
These findings don’t capture the full impact of federal activity on Maine’s economy. Learning loss for students leads to reduced earnings later in life. Food banks have seen increased need and hundreds of families are at risk of eviction because of having to miss work. What’s more, it’s clear while “Operation Catch of the Day” may have wound down, arrests by ICE, Border Patrol, and other agencies continue in Maine.
Detaining and eventually deporting hundreds of Mainers will hurt communities and the economy. Each worker in Maine adds just under $76,000 in value to the state’s economy. ICE claimed to have detained 206 Mainers during its January operation — if three-quarters of them were working, that’s 157 workers taken out of Maine’s labor force, reducing economic output by just under $12 million each year.
Rather than demonizing immigrants and spreading fear throughout Maine communities, lawmakers should welcome new arrivals in a state that desperately needs to expand its labor force and overall population. We know immigration is a net benefit to the economy over the long term. President Trump’s actions are not only cruel but economically counter-productive.
Methodology
MECEP based its estimates on data from public school districts in the areas most affected by the ICE operation — Auburn, Biddeford, Lewiston, Portland, Saco, South Portland and Westbrook. Data on the number of children absent from school is the most accurate and timely data currently available. MECEP compared the number of students absent from school during the operation to a baseline attendance rate of 90% to estimate the additional effect of the ICE operations. The number of absent students was compared to each school district’s non-white student population to estimate the effects on the economy more broadly. For example, in Portland, the absence rate during the surge averaged 8% above normal, which is the equivalent of 493 missing students each day. According to the Maine Department of Education, Portland has 3,386 non-white students, so the absent students were equivalent to 15% of the nonwhite student body. According to Census Bureau data, 8,300 Mainers of Color are employed in Portland. If 15% of those individuals stayed home, the city would have lost an average of 1,200 workers each day of the surge.
A similar method was applied to economic activity, using taxable retail sales data from Maine Revenue Services for January 2025.