Portlanders will have the opportunity to vote to gradually raise the city’s minimum wage to $19 per hour by 2028, after the City Council voted to include the measure on this November’s ballot. Maine Center for Economic Policy analysis shows this step would raise wages for more than 15,000 workers — about one in five people working in the city — without posing significant risks to the overall local economy, though questions remain about certain sectors.
Portland’s minimum wage is currently $15.50 per hour, an amount which increases each year by the rate of inflation for the Northeastern states. This regularly scheduled increase will take the minimum wage to $16.00 per hour under current law. Under the proposal before voters, it would instead increase to $16.75 per hour on January 1, 2026, to $17.75 per hour in 2027 and $19 per hour in 2028, after which annual indexing to inflation would continue. Based on current inflation projections, this means the minimum wage would be approximately $2.45 per hour higher in 2028 than under the current schedule.
A sustainable increase
Economists often evaluate minimum wage proposals using the Kaitz index, which compares the minimum wage to the median hourly wage for a full-time, year-round worker in a geographic area. If the minimum wage is set too close to the median, it may carry unintended economic consequences such as job losses.
Portland’s current minimum wage of $15.50 per hour is equivalent to53% of the city’s $29.50 median hourly wage. By 2028, the city’s median hourly wage is projected to be $31.60. The proposed $19 minimum would equal 60% of that — well within the range economists consider sustainable. In fact, research shows even a minimum wage as high as 80% of the median can be absorbed without widespread job loss, especially when phased in over several years.
Who benefits
By 2028, about 21% of Portland’s workforce — or roughly 15,000 people — would see a raise under the proposal. On average, these workers would see an annual increase of nearly $2,100 per worker, or a combined $32 million boost to paychecks across the city.
Three groups of workers are affected:
- Around 1,500 tipped workers, such as servers and bartenders, whose base pay before tips is set at half the minimum wage, would see an increase from a projected $8.28 per hour to $9.50 per hour.
- An estimated 8,000 directly impacted workers who are currently earning below the new minimum wage would see an increase of about $2.45 per hour.
- A little under 6,000 indirectly impacted workers earning just above the new minimum would receive smaller raises to keep wages competitive.
The benefits will be felt most strongly among groups that have historically been underpaid or marginalized:
- Women workers: 23% would benefit, compared to 18% of men
- Workers of color: 27% would benefit, compared to 20% of white non-Hispanic workers
- Young and older workers: 40% of those under 25 and 22% of those over 65 would see higher wages
- Less formally educated workers: Nearly 30% of those with only a high school diploma would benefit, compared to just 6% of those with graduate degrees
Industries with high concentrations of low-wage work — food service, retail, arts and entertainment, and administrative support — would see the biggest gains. For example, nearly half of accommodation and food service workers would get a raise.
Challenges ahead
While the benefits to workers are clear, the proposal also poses some challenges for adult care and child care providers. Maine ties state reimbursement rates for direct care services to the statewide minimum wage, not local wages. That means if Portland adopts a higher minimum, local providers may face rising labor costs without additional state funding to cover them. A similar issue arises for child care providers who accept families with state subsidies, which will not increase to account for the increased cost of labor.
To prevent these unintended consequences, state lawmakers will need to increase investments in direct care and child care services. Without such action, some Portland providers may struggle to balance labor costs.
Conclusion
Raising Portland’s minimum wage to $19 by 2028 is well within the range of minimum wage increases which boost incomes without negatively impacting employment. It would lift incomes for thousands of workers, reduce inequality across race, gender, and age. To ensure the success of this proposal, the State should also step up its support for care workers and child care providers who form the backbone of Maine’s economy.
A full breakdown of the workers impacted by the Portland minimum wage proposal and the accompanying methodology is available here.